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板、ファンディング、清算、そしてバイナリー契約の算術についてのノート。言われたことを自分で確かめる人のために書いています。
記事
11 件の記事
- 15 分で読了
Polymarket whale tracking: telling a wallet that matters from a wallet that is merely large
Polymarket whale tracking is a measurement problem, not a feed problem: how to find a wallet whose trades move price, and what a public leaderboard hides.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- whale tracking
- 6 分で読了
The tools a prediction-market trader actually needs
Most of the stack is free, and a spreadsheet does more than most paid products. What each category of tool is for, and where paid data actually starts to matter.
- prediction markets
- tools
- measurement
- 7 分で読了
Why most prediction-market traders lose money
Bloomberg put the net loss across ~2 million Polymarket addresses at $131M. The mechanisms behind that number are specific, measurable, and mostly cost.
- prediction markets
- positioning
- measurement
- 8 分で読了
What funding rates say about positioning, and how crowded trades unwind
Funding is the price of leverage, not a forecast. Reading it against open interest, why percentiles beat levels, and the mechanics of a liquidation cascade.
- market structure
- positioning
- crypto
- 9 分で読了
How to read a level-2 order book, and what imbalance really tells you
The arithmetic behind order-flow signals: imbalance windows, the microprice, the four ways displayed depth misleads, and how to sample a book honestly.
- market structure
- order flow
- crypto