Pengungkapan Risiko

EdgeMarket collects public market data and publishes measurements of it: order-book structure, funding, liquidations, positioning, wallet activity on prediction markets, and a public register of how its own signals have performed. That is the product. It is information and measurement, nothing else.

This page is not boilerplate placed at the bottom of a sales page. It states the boundary of what we sell, and the boundary is narrow on purpose.

Nothing published by EdgeMarket — a statistic, a ranking, a signal, an alert, a chart, a blog post or a message from our support team — is investment advice, a personal recommendation, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell anything.

We do not know your financial situation, your objectives, your tax position, your risk tolerance or your obligations. Any measurement you read here is produced for everyone at once; it cannot take you into account. If you need advice on your own situation, consult a professional authorised to give it in your country.

Regulatory status. Yando Pte. Ltd., the company that operates EdgeMarket, holds no licence and no authorisation as a financial adviser, a broker, an asset manager, a market operator or a betting operator, in any jurisdiction. It is not supervised by any financial regulator.

What EdgeMarket does is publish market data and measurements of it. That is the whole of the service. In particular:

• We give no personal recommendation and no investment advice.
• We execute no order, and we pass no order to a third party.
• We hold, receive and transfer no client funds and no client assets.
• We accept no bet, and we operate no market.

EdgeMarket places no order, on any venue, ever. It does not receive, hold, transfer or manage funds or assets. It has no custody of any wallet or exchange account, no access to your private keys, and no discretionary mandate over anything of yours.

Every position you open is opened by you, at a venue you chose, under that venue’s rules and its risk. We are not a counterparty to your trades and we are not an intermediary in them.

It follows that we will never ask you for a private key, a seed phrase, or an API key that can trade or withdraw. If a message in our name asks for one, it is not from us.

Crypto assets and prediction markets are volatile, largely unregulated and, in places, illiquid. A position can lose its entire value, and it can do so quickly. Only commit money you can afford to lose in full.

Risks that recur in the markets we cover

• Leverage and liquidation: a small adverse move can close your position at a loss you did not choose.
• Funding and financing costs: holding a perpetual position has a running cost that can exceed the move you were right about.
• Fees and slippage: an edge measured before costs can be negative after them. This is not a theoretical caveat — it is the most common way a correct call loses money.
• Liquidity: a book that looks deep can empty exactly when you need to exit.
• Venue and counterparty risk: an exchange or a market can halt, restrict withdrawals, deleverage positions, or fail.
• Smart-contract and bridge risk: on-chain venues can be exploited or can behave unexpectedly.
• Resolution risk on prediction markets: a market can resolve against the outcome you consider obvious, because of the wording of the rules, an oracle dispute or a late correction.
• Regulatory risk: access to a venue, an asset or a market can be restricted where you live, with no notice.

The base rate is unforgiving. Bloomberg reported that prediction-market traders lost a net $131 million across roughly two million Polymarket addresses — read the report. EdgeMarket exists because that number is what it is. It is not evidence that you will do better; it is the distribution you are entering.

Every historical figure we publish is computed on outcomes that are already known. That is what makes it verifiable, and it is also what limits it: the market that produced those outcomes is not the market you are trading now. Participants adapt, liquidity moves, an edge that existed gets arbitraged away.

A backtest, a hit rate or a calibration curve describes the past. None of them is a forecast, a target, or a promise. Nobody at EdgeMarket guarantees a result, and any claim that we do is false.

A published statistic can be entirely true and still mislead you, if you read it without its denominator. This section is the one to read before acting on any figure on this site.

Always look for the denominator

A hit rate is meaningless without the number of observations it is computed on, and without the share of cases that never resolved. A rate computed only on resolved cases silently drops everything still open — which is exactly where the unfavourable cases tend to pile up. That is why our register publishes emitted, unresolved and verified counts side by side, month by month, rather than a single headline number.

Calibration is not profitability

A well-calibrated probability — one that is right about how often it is right — can still lose money once fees, slippage and funding are paid. The register states the fee assumption used, so that the gap between "accurate" and "profitable" stays visible instead of being quietly closed.

A headline number can be carried by a subset

An aggregate rate can be held up by one favourable regime or one category of cases, while the rest performs badly. We publish the decomposition, including the half that does not flatter us. If a provider shows you an aggregate and not its parts, treat the aggregate as unverified.

Small samples and selected filters

A bucket with few observations swings wildly by chance alone. And a threshold chosen after looking at the data will always look impressive on that data. Prefer figures whose rule was fixed in advance and whose sample size is published next to them.

A measurement is not your result

Even a sound statistic says nothing about what you would have earned. Your entry timing, your size, your latency, the venue you use and the fees you pay are yours; none of them is in our numbers.

The definitions, the denominators, the coverage gaps and the stated limits of every figure we publish are in the public register. It is deliberately the least flattering page on the site: if a number there does not hold up, the honest thing is that you should be able to see it for yourself.

Our measurements are built on public data from third parties, in particular the public APIs of Polymarket, Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid, and on public on-chain records. We do not control those sources.

They can be delayed, throttled, incomplete, temporarily unavailable, or later restated. A figure shown on the site can therefore differ from the venue’s own figure, and can change after publication. Treat what you read as an indication to verify at your venue before acting, not as a settlement record.

Checking that trading, betting on prediction markets or holding crypto assets is lawful where you live is your responsibility, as is declaring and paying any tax due on your gains. Access to EdgeMarket is not an authorisation to trade anywhere, and it is not a tax opinion.

Availability by territory. EdgeMarket is not offered in countries and territories under comprehensive sanctions from the United Nations, the European Union, the United States (OFAC) or Singapore. At the date of this notice that covers Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria, and the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Those lists change: the official lists apply, not this example.

Screening at sign-up is a declaration, not a check. Creating an account requires ticking a box stating that you are 18 or older and not resident in a sanctioned jurisdiction. We do not verify either point by geolocation or by identity check, and we do not present that box as one.

Questions about this notice, or about how a figure is computed: support@edgemarket.co. The contractual limits of the service are set out in the terms of service, and the way we handle your data in the privacy policy.