주제
measurement에 대해 발행한 글 전부 — 5개, 최신순입니다.
- 발행한 글
- 13분 분량
Prediction market signals: what a hit rate is worth without its denominator
What a prediction market signal actually is, how a hit rate is built, and why a percentage published without its coverage and its sample size is not a measurement.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- positioning
- 7분 분량
What 'smart money' means in a prediction market, and what it does not
A leaderboard sorted by win rate is noise: a quarter of our wallet store shows exactly 100%, most on a single market. What has to be measured first.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- measurement
- 15분 분량
Polymarket whale tracking: telling a wallet that matters from a wallet that is merely large
Polymarket whale tracking is a measurement problem, not a feed problem: how to find a wallet whose trades move price, and what a public leaderboard hides.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- whale tracking
- 6분 분량
The tools a prediction-market trader actually needs
Most of the stack is free, and a spreadsheet does more than most paid products. What each category of tool is for, and where paid data actually starts to matter.
- prediction markets
- tools
- measurement
- 7분 분량
Why most prediction-market traders lose money
Bloomberg put the net loss across ~2 million Polymarket addresses at $131M. The mechanisms behind that number are specific, measurable, and mostly cost.
- prediction markets
- positioning
- measurement