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Semua yang kami terbitkan tentang prediction markets — 8 artikel, terbaru lebih dulu.
- Artikel terbit
- baca 8 mnt
Five ways a large position gets built, and what each leaves on the tape
Accumulation, the single print, the scale-in, the quiet exit and the hedge that looks like a reversal — and, for each, what the tape cannot distinguish it from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- order flow
- baca 9 mnt
What a prediction-market order book does that a crypto book does not
A prediction-market book is thin, and depth sits where the price already is. What the spread costs you, and why size at the touch is the number that matters.
- prediction markets
- order flow
- market structure
- baca 7 mnt
Seven ways copying a wallet goes wrong
Survivorship, one-legged positions, a spread you cross twice and a horizon that is not yours. Seven ways a copied position stops resembling the one it was copied from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- positioning
- baca 13 mnt
Prediction market signals: what a hit rate is worth without its denominator
What a prediction market signal actually is, how a hit rate is built, and why a percentage published without its coverage and its sample size is not a measurement.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- positioning
- baca 7 mnt
What 'smart money' means in a prediction market, and what it does not
A leaderboard sorted by win rate is noise: a quarter of our wallet store shows exactly 100%, most on a single market. What has to be measured first.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- measurement
- baca 15 mnt
Polymarket whale tracking: telling a wallet that matters from a wallet that is merely large
Polymarket whale tracking is a measurement problem, not a feed problem: how to find a wallet whose trades move price, and what a public leaderboard hides.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- whale tracking
- baca 6 mnt
The tools a prediction-market trader actually needs
Most of the stack is free, and a spreadsheet does more than most paid products. What each category of tool is for, and where paid data actually starts to matter.
- prediction markets
- tools
- measurement
- baca 7 mnt
Why most prediction-market traders lose money
Bloomberg put the net loss across ~2 million Polymarket addresses at $131M. The mechanisms behind that number are specific, measurable, and mostly cost.
- prediction markets
- positioning
- measurement