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关于订单簿、funding、爆仓，以及二元合约的算术——写给会核对说法的人。
EdgeMarket 发布的是测量结果，而不是预测，这里解释的正是其背后的机制。每篇文章都写得可供核查：机制完整描述，引用的任何数字要么在我们自己的数据库中实测并登记于公开记录，要么注明来源并附上链接。
没有发布排期，也没有数量指标。只有当关于市场结构、持仓或测量确有具体内容可说，并且能在不使用站不住脚的数字的前提下说清楚时，文章才会出现。
- 已发布文章
- 主题归档
- 阅读分钟数
仅根据本页内容统计：此处发布的文章、文章数量足以设立归档的主题，以及由每篇正文计算出的阅读时长之和。
文章
11 篇文章
- 阅读 8 分钟
Five ways a large position gets built, and what each leaves on the tape
Accumulation, the single print, the scale-in, the quiet exit and the hedge that looks like a reversal — and, for each, what the tape cannot distinguish it from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- order flow
- 阅读 9 分钟
What a prediction-market order book does that a crypto book does not
A prediction-market book is thin, and depth sits where the price already is. What the spread costs you, and why size at the touch is the number that matters.
- prediction markets
- order flow
- market structure
- 阅读 13 分钟
Crypto funding rates and open interest: the pair, the units, and the plumbing
Crypto funding rates price leverage, open interest counts it. Reading the pair across four venues, why raw rates are not comparable, and what the collection layer decides.
- crypto
- market structure
- positioning
- 阅读 7 分钟
Seven ways copying a wallet goes wrong
Survivorship, one-legged positions, a spread you cross twice and a horizon that is not yours. Seven ways a copied position stops resembling the one it was copied from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- positioning
- 阅读 13 分钟
Prediction market signals: what a hit rate is worth without its denominator
What a prediction market signal actually is, how a hit rate is built, and why a percentage published without its coverage and its sample size is not a measurement.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- positioning
- 阅读 7 分钟
What 'smart money' means in a prediction market, and what it does not
A leaderboard sorted by win rate is noise: a quarter of our wallet store shows exactly 100%, most on a single market. What has to be measured first.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- measurement