Blog
Notes on order books, funding, liquidations and the arithmetic of a binary contract — written for people who check what they are told.
Articles
11 articles
- 15 min read
Polymarket whale tracking: telling a wallet that matters from a wallet that is merely large
Polymarket whale tracking is a measurement problem, not a feed problem: how to find a wallet whose trades move price, and what a public leaderboard hides.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- whale tracking
- 6 min read
The tools a prediction-market trader actually needs
Most of the stack is free, and a spreadsheet does more than most paid products. What each category of tool is for, and where paid data actually starts to matter.
- prediction markets
- tools
- measurement
- 7 min read
Why most prediction-market traders lose money
Bloomberg put the net loss across ~2 million Polymarket addresses at $131M. The mechanisms behind that number are specific, measurable, and mostly cost.
- prediction markets
- positioning
- measurement
- 8 min read
What funding rates say about positioning, and how crowded trades unwind
Funding is the price of leverage, not a forecast. Reading it against open interest, why percentiles beat levels, and the mechanics of a liquidation cascade.
- market structure
- positioning
- crypto
- 9 min read
How to read a level-2 order book, and what imbalance really tells you
The arithmetic behind order-flow signals: imbalance windows, the microprice, the four ways displayed depth misleads, and how to sample a book honestly.
- market structure
- order flow
- crypto