Changelog
This log starts where the record starts. It carries what can be checked against the register and the repository, and nothing else: three honest entries beat twenty invented ones. New entries are added when something actually ships.
Version 2026.08.15
4 changes
- Fixed
Slots whose closing price could never be retrieved are no longer counted as incorrect. They had been stored as wrong answers, which dragged the all-time hit rate down to a number that measured a data-collection failure rather than a prediction. They are now recorded as unknown, excluded from the rate, and the excluded share is published beside it.
- Changed
The calibration table now publishes all eight price bands. The previous version showed six and concluded that the edge was positive everywhere, having dropped the bands where it is negative.
- Added
Public register published: the headline hit rate, coverage month by month, the decomposition behind that headline, and the full price-by-outcome table — with the bands that do not flatter the signal.
- Added
Public site rebuilt: new design system, thirteen locales wired end to end, and company pages — about, FAQ, changelog and status — carrying no figure that has not been measured.
- Fixed
Dates are the day the change went live, in UTC. Anything that alters a published figure is logged here as well as on the register, so the two can be reconciled.