Blog
Notes on order books, funding, liquidations and the arithmetic of a binary contract — written for people who check what they are told.
EdgeMarket publishes measurements rather than forecasts, and this is where the mechanics behind them are explained. Every article is written to be checked: the mechanism is described in full, and any number we quote is either measured in our own database and published in the register, or attributed to a named source with a link to it.
There is no publishing schedule and no volume target. An article appears when there is something specific to say about market structure, positioning or measurement, and when it can be said without a figure we would not be able to defend.
- Articles published
- Topic archives
- Minutes of reading
Counted from what is on this page and nothing else: the articles published here, the topics that carry enough of them to have an archive, and the sum of the reading times computed from each body.
Articles
11 articles
- 8 min read
Five ways a large position gets built, and what each leaves on the tape
Accumulation, the single print, the scale-in, the quiet exit and the hedge that looks like a reversal — and, for each, what the tape cannot distinguish it from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- order flow
- 9 min read
What a prediction-market order book does that a crypto book does not
A prediction-market book is thin, and depth sits where the price already is. What the spread costs you, and why size at the touch is the number that matters.
- prediction markets
- order flow
- market structure
- 13 min read
Crypto funding rates and open interest: the pair, the units, and the plumbing
Crypto funding rates price leverage, open interest counts it. Reading the pair across four venues, why raw rates are not comparable, and what the collection layer decides.
- crypto
- market structure
- positioning
- 7 min read
Seven ways copying a wallet goes wrong
Survivorship, one-legged positions, a spread you cross twice and a horizon that is not yours. Seven ways a copied position stops resembling the one it was copied from.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- positioning
- 13 min read
Prediction market signals: what a hit rate is worth without its denominator
What a prediction market signal actually is, how a hit rate is built, and why a percentage published without its coverage and its sample size is not a measurement.
- prediction markets
- measurement
- positioning
- 7 min read
What 'smart money' means in a prediction market, and what it does not
A leaderboard sorted by win rate is noise: a quarter of our wallet store shows exactly 100%, most on a single market. What has to be measured first.
- prediction markets
- wallets
- measurement