What a signal is here
Polymarket runs five-minute up-or-down markets on BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. Each slot opens, takes positions for a few minutes, and settles against the spot move. A signal is a direction and a confidence stated for one of those slots, before it closes.
That format has one property that longer-horizon calls do not: it settles constantly. A weekly forecast takes a year to accumulate fifty data points. These accumulate fifty in four hours, which makes a claimed edge checkable in days rather than seasons.
The register, and why it shows the misses
Every call is written to a public register: the slot, the asset, the direction, the confidence, and what actually happened. Hits and misses appear in the same table at the same size. Slots that never settled are marked as unsettled rather than quietly dropped — dropping them is the easiest way to manufacture a hit rate.
You can read the full register without an account, and the recent slots are laid out one by one if you want to check a specific hour rather than an aggregate.
Note A hit rate stated without its sample size and its unsettled slots is not a measurement. If a service will not show you those two things, the number is decoration.
How to read the confidence
Confidence is not a promise. A call at 70% that misses is not a failed call — it is one of the three in ten it announced. What can fail is the calibration: if everything stated at 70% resolves nine times in ten, the number is wrong even though the direction was right. Calibration is explained in full, including how to read a reliability diagram without fooling yourself.
This matters for sizing more than for direction. Position size scales with the stated edge, so overconfidence bets hardest exactly where it is most wrong.
Frequently asked
- Which assets are covered?
- BTC and ETH on the Operator tier, and SOL and XRP as well on Principal. The pricing page has the full grid.
- Are the signals financial advice?
- No. They are a stated direction with a stated confidence, published with the record of how often that confidence has held. What you do with it is a decision we take no part in.
- Can I check the record before subscribing?
- Yes. The register is public and does not require an account, precisely so that the claim can be audited before it is paid for.
- Why five minutes rather than a longer horizon?
- Because it settles often enough to be checked. A long-horizon call is comfortable to publish and nearly impossible to score inside a subscription period.
Keep reading
- The five-minute predictor, slot by slot
The recent slots with their outcomes, hour by hour.
- Best Polymarket analytics tools
Where directional calls sit among the other instruments.