Polymarket tools

The four instruments that matter

1. 01Flow — who is taking which side, and whether that wallet has moved price before. Covered by the whale tracker.
2. 02Structure — the depth on each side of the book, and the funding, open interest and positioning in the crypto market underneath. A prediction market on BTC does not move independently of BTC.
3. 03Sizing — how much to put on a stated edge. This is where most accounts are actually lost, not on direction.
4. 04A record — some way of knowing afterwards whether any of the above worked. Without one, the other three are opinions.

The free calculators

Three of these need no account and no subscription. They are small on purpose: each does one conversion correctly rather than wrapping a dashboard around it.

• Odds converter — decimal, fractional, American and implied probability, in both directions.
• Position sizing — what a stated edge is actually worth betting, and why the full fraction is almost never the right answer.
• Funding cost — what a perpetual position costs to hold while a thesis plays out.
• Liquidation price — where leverage stops being a choice.

Reading the structure

Depth is the number most often misread. A market showing size at the top of book can be far thinner two ticks down, and a fill that looks aggressive may simply have been the only price available. Reading an order book covers the difference between top-of-book and depth-of-book, which is the distinction behind most surprised reactions to a whale alert.

Funding and open interest matter for the same reason: they say whether a move is being paid for or merely hoped for. Funding rates explained sets out how to read them without over-interpreting a single print.